Analysis of possible traffic development paths and control measures


The central objective of work package 6500 is to quantify the effects of different policy control measures on traffic during the Corona pandemic. For this purpose, the agent-based, Germany-wide transport demand model ANTMOD will be used.

Procedures and Methods

First, the pandemic is divided into different phases (lockdown, relaxations, lockdown-light, etc.). Then, the "Mobility in Germany 2017" trip dataset is adjusted to reflect the traffic on an average day in the different phases. This is done by weighting certain routes up or down, or even eliminating them altogether, based on the findings from work packages 6100 and 6300. The adaptation of the path dataset is necessary because the transport demand model ANTMOD is based on it, which will be used to model the effects of political control measures on traffic in the pandemic.

The effect of control measures focusing on two specific objectives during the pandemic is investigated:

  1. reduction of mobility
  2. Setting the course for a traffic turnaround towards sustainable mobility.

Mobility is seen as one of the key drivers of the pandemic. For this reason, the traffic impact of various measures such as home office quotas, closure of restaurants, cultural facilities, sports and entertainment venues and also the closure of retail trade will be analyzed. At the same time, it is important to steer traffic towards more sustainable mobility during the pandemic, if possible. For this purpose, the traffic impact of measures such as the increase of fuel tax, price and offer changes in public transport as well as the promotion of cycling will be investigated.

To quantify the impact of the measures, they are implemented in the transport demand model ANTMOD, which is used to model traffic in Germany on an average day during the different phases of the pandemic.


Work Package 6500 started significantly later than all other work packages, so initial results are not expected until late 2021 or early 2022.