Scenario analysis software VECTOR21 – a bottom-up vehicle market model

VECTOR21 separates the simulated market in several segments. Each segment holding a certain market-share is represented by a customer agent with certain customer characteristics. On the supply side the offered vehicles are composed of an adjustable number of vehicle parts. Year by year the discrete choice algorithm calculates the customer‘s purchase decision of every agent:


  • Customer side: A customer agent is modelled for every customer segment. The granularity of the customer‘s characteristics are adjustable as well as their geographical distribution.
  • Utility-based purchase decision: The purchase decision of every agent is simulated by an algorithm comparing the customer‘s needs to the characteristics of the vehicles offered. Every agent decides for an offer maximizing its utility function.
  • Supply side: The offered vehicles incorporate detailed vehicle technologies and costs. The granularity of the vehicle modeling as well as pre-defined technology development steps are adjustable to the personal needs.

Key Results

The VECTOR21 simulation delivers a large number of results supporting your strategic decisions on vehicle markets. The most important results are:


  • Market-shares of powertrains and components in different socio-demographic and geographical segments
  • Cost development of vehicles and components over time
  • Diffusion of new technologies with feedback loops on costs of vehicle components
  • Energy consumption development of energy consumption of vehicle stock
  • Automatic component sizing an optimizing algorithm determines the optimal size of components (e.g. batteries and efficiency technologies) according to the customer’s needs
  • Emissions & CO2 limits CO2 emissions of manufactured vehicles and the adherence to CO2 limits


External Influences


Infrastructure modelling                                                                

Regional distribution of infrastructure demand and availability

Political influences                                                                                       

Country-specific taxes, subsidies and regulations

Supply-side framework                                                                               

Strategies to react on CO2 regulation and production enlargement limits

Energy costs                                                                                                   

Modelling costs from source to end user